Inflation and artificial intelligence under scrutiny

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In focus

Airbnb (ABNB)

We purchased Airbnb shares in late September while the stock was declining. The latest published results and recent platform improvements provide context for this position.

Here are the key figures for the second quarter of 2026. Dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars:

  • Revenue: $3.6 billion, up 17% year over year.
  • Gross booking value: $27.2 billion, up 16%.
  • Nights and seats booked: +10%.
  • Net income: $816 million, including a $77 million tax benefit.
  • Free cash flow: $1.25 billion.

Free cash flow represents cash generated by operations after capital expenditures. This non-GAAP measure remains sensitive to the timing of bookings and payments.

The company is also broadening its offering. Its September 30 update introduces new AI-powered search and comparison tools, initially rolling out in the United States. It also plans to expand services such as meal delivery, laundry and baby gear rentals in selected markets. Adoption remains to be seen.

The risks remain significant. Local restrictions on short-term rentals can limit the number of available homes. A decline in travel spending would also weigh on demand, while competition among platforms and hotels remains intense. The success of the new tools and services will depend on their ability to attract and retain users.

On Thursday, October 15, the stock gained 4.32% at the close, finishing at US$174.28. The next milestone is the release of third-quarter results, scheduled for November 5 after the market close. It will provide an opportunity to reassess booking growth and profitability as the offering diversifies.

Theme of the week

Growth holds up as prices accelerate

Inflation picked up again in the United States. Consumer prices increased 0.6% in September, bringing the annual rate to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline, which rose 9.1% during the month, accounted for more than half of the monthly increase. Excluding food and energy, annual inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.6%.

Thursday’s data confirmed the pressure on costs. Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September and 6.3% year over year. Retail sales also increased 0.8% during the month. Spending therefore remains supported in nominal terms, although this measure, which is not adjusted for price changes, does not allow the full increase to be attributed to purchase volumes.

Other U.S. indicators point to continued economic activity. Initial jobless claims totalled 199,000 for the week ended October 10, just 1,000 above the previous week’s revised level. Industrial production rose 0.7% in September, including a 0.3% increase in manufacturing. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book also reported slight to moderate growth in most districts.

In Canada, housing remains sensitive to borrowing costs. Home sales declined 2.3% in September compared with August, while the home price index fell 0.4%. The Canadian Real Estate Association noted that higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s next decisions are weighing on buyers.

The inflation challenge also extends internationally. In the euro area, annual inflation reached 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August, with energy making a substantial contribution. The International Monetary Fund projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 amid renewed price pressures.

In the markets, financing artificial intelligence drew as much attention as demand growth. TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of US$46.72 billion, up 41.2% year over year, and expects fourth-quarter revenue of US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion. ASML, meanwhile, reported quarterly sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion. These results point to sustained activity at two key suppliers to the semiconductor industry.

CoreWeave’s situation, however, illustrates the financial demands of this expansion. In the second quarter, the company recorded revenue of US$2.58 billion, but net interest expense reached US$640 million, compared with US$267 million a year earlier, alongside a net loss of US$626 million. On Wednesday, October 14, its shares fell 15.46%, while yields on some of its bonds approached 15%. Demand for its services can therefore grow rapidly even as profitability remains elusive.

Our reading of the week: AI-related demand remains strong, but investors are also examining the financial strength of the companies participating in that growth. The ability to turn growth into cash and fund future investments is a key consideration when assessing investment opportunities.

Market summary

On Friday morning, the Dow Jones and S&P/TSX were up from the October 9 close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were lower. The gap between the indices illustrates the weakness in technology stocks relative to the broader market. On Thursday, health care and financials had helped Wall Street recover. U.S. bond yields also declined over the week despite the inflation data. In Asia, the Kospi’s rebound on Friday following Thursday’s decline underscored the scale of the swings surrounding semiconductors.

Weekly changes as of October 16, 2026From the October 9 close to the morning of October 16; indicative CAD USD spot rate.MarketWeekly changeS&P 500−0.93%Nasdaq Composite−3.02%Dow Jones+1.48%S&P/TSX+1.92%Brent crude+1.19%WTI crude+6.40%U.S. 10-year yield−12.1 bpsCAD USD+0.61%

Stock highlights

Changes for the sessions indicated, at the U.S. market close.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM): −0.86% Tuesday

The bank reported quarterly net income of US$15.3 billion, or US$5.57 per share under GAAP. The results fell short of Wall Street expectations.

Morgan Stanley (MS): −2.75% Wednesday

Quarterly revenue reached US$20.3 billion, compared with US$18.2 billion a year earlier. Wealth management generated record revenue.

ASML (ASML): −3.94% Wednesday

The chip-making equipment manufacturer announced quarterly sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion. It expects full-year sales of €44 billion to €45 billion.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): −1.80% Thursday

TSMC reported quarterly revenue of US$46.72 billion. Its fourth-quarter forecast ranges from US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion.

CoreWeave (CRWV): −15.46% Wednesday

The AI cloud infrastructure provider was at the centre of concerns about debt costs and the financing of data centre expansion. Following its sharp decline on Wednesday, the stock rebounded 5.94% on Thursday.

Coming up next week

Canadian inflation and more earnings

On Monday, October 19, Canada’s September inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys will draw attention. These releases will help clarify the outlook for prices and demand ahead of the October 28 rate decision. Earnings season continues with Netflix on Tuesday, October 20, Tesla and IBM on Wednesday, October 21, and Procter & Gamble on Thursday, October 22. Commentary on margins, household spending and technology investment will be particularly useful in extending this week’s analysis.

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